Bay Area Real Estate Sales.com Newsletter

February 2008

 

IN THIS ISSUE:

 

Marin Home Sales Statistics

Marin 2007 Home Sales Statistics Are In!

Mill Valley Single Family Homes Buck National Trend

The Conforming Loan Limits Have Changed.  How Does It Affect You?

Why Fed Rate Cuts Do Not Equal Lower Mortgage Rates & Other Mortgage News

What Did Your Neighbors' House Sell For?

Search The Marin Multiple Listing Service For A New Marin Home

Fast Facts

 

 

MARIN HOME SALES STATISTICS

By Liz McCarthy

 

There is a lot of great information contained in this month's newsletter. I hope you find it informative.

 

I was very surprised to note that my recent analysis (as of 2/18/08) shows that Fairfax is in an Extreme Sellers market, Ross is in a Sellers market and San Anselmo is in a Balanced market? What does this mean? It means (primarily due to the small amount of homes that are currently on the market) that there are more homes in Contract in Fairfax then there are available to purchase. Novato and San Rafael by far have the most amount of homes on the market and are definitively in Buyers markets. In Novato the prices are still dropping and there are bargains to be had. In Southern Marin, there seems to be a current lack of homes available to purchase and I've heard of multiple offers happening recently! This certainly bucks the trend from what all the newspapers are stating and what the rest of the state/country is experiencing.

 

If you look at the analysis by price range, you'll see that all of the price ranges are in a Buyers Market. This clearly shows that there are a lot of differences all over Marin, it's very house and location specific.

 

Don't get me wrong, there are a lot of homes that are still currently overpriced and are sitting on the market for long period of times. It's time for sellers to take a clear picture of the market before deciding to sell their home. I'd be happy to give you an analysis, as even different streets in the same town are being affected differently.

 

In this newsletter edition I will include an entire section on the recently approved economic stimulus package regarding the lowering of the Conforming loan limit. This will likely affect our market in Marin. How will it affect you?.... see the story below to see more.

 

I've just published the 2007 Home Price Data for Marin on my website, You'll find a lot of great information there. Here's the link:

Marin 2007 Home Sales Stats

 

 

 

 

 

**Based on information from Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, Inc. (BAREIS). Information has not been verified, is not guaranteed, and is subject to change and is based on one period of time."

***Includes all: Sale Pending & Contingent properties

 

Monthly Statistics

 

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or for an evaluation of your home's worth, call me. If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the top.

 

I'm always searching for ways to bring my clients and readers more local real estate statistics. I'm pleased to announce the launch of my new Marin home Sales Statistics page. To view, go to: Marin Real Estate Statistics.

 

If you know of anyone who would like to receive this monthly newsletter or is thinking of either buying or selling a home please let me know. I'd love your referrals!

 

FREE...You can search for Marin listings directly on BayAreaRealEstateSales.com: Search for Homes

 

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MARIN 2007 HOME SALES STATISTICS ARE IN!

 

I have all sorts of great stats for my clients to review.

 

You can download reports by actual average home prices by county, by city, Days on Market and Number of Units Sold stats:

You can see median home prices by city evaluated by 2 local appraisers by clicking on the following link.

This is VERY important information to analyze if you are looking to buy or sell a home this year.

 

Marin 2007 Home Sales Stats

Here's an example of the Home Stats for Mill Valley:

MILL VALLEY SINGLE FAMILY HOMES BUCK NATIONAL TREND

(Remember, you can find data like this for EVERY city in Marin Marin 2007 Home Sales Stats)

 

The overall Average home price for Marin in 2007 was: $1,223,933

The Average home price for Mill Valley in 2007 was: $1,400,526 up from 2006

393 homes were sold in Mill Valley in 2007 as compared to 419 in 2006.

 

Values hold or increase in stable market

 

There were 341 sales of single family residences in Mill Valley for 2007. This is compared to 351 sales in 2006 and 388 sales in 2005, a 3-year total decline in volume of only 12 percent.

 

The median Mill Valley single family dwelling is a 3BR/2BA structure with 1,898 square feet of living space. Its median selling price has increased from $1,177,500 in 2005 to $1,220,000 in 2006 to $1,275,000 in 2007. These represent year-to-year increases of 3.6 percent in 2006 and 4.5 percent for the year 2007. Median days on market have increased only slightly going from 31 to 34 to 36 for 2007.

 

In more detail, two market price segments, defined for this study and indicated by the data, of $500,000 to $1,000,000 and $1,000,001 to $2,000,000 capture 82.1 percent of the total market, omitting one exceptional $6.55 MM sale. It is useful to analyze them separately.

 

In the largest 2007 market segment, 53.7 percent of the total, are homes sold between $1,000,001 to $2,000,000. The median dwelling is a 3BR/3BA, 2,006 square foot home, its value has held steady over the three-year period 2005 through 2007 from $1,335,000 to $1,350,000 to $1,344,000. Both the median dwelling definition and value have remained near-constant from 2005 through 2007. Median days on market are the same story, ranging from 31 to 36 days.

 

In the next largest 2007 market segment, 28.4 percent of the total, are homes sold between $500,000 to $1,000,000. The median dwelling is a 3BR/2BA, 1,898 square foot home. Its value increased only slightly, 1.7 percent over the three-year period 2005 through 2007 from $850,000 to $865,625 to $864,500. The median dwelling definition has remained near-constant 2005 through 2007. Median days on market moved up from 31 in 2005 to 36 in 2006 to 50 in 2007.

 

Comparing 2007 first-half to the second for these two dominant market segments, a similar picture is apparent. In the lower, $500,000 to $1,000,000 bracket, the median price declined 2.6 percent in the second half of the year, but had returned to the level of 2005 and only $1,000 off 2006's peak price of $865,625. Median days on market declined slightly from 53 to 50. In the $1,000,000 to $2,000,000 segment, the median price actually rose from $1,337,000 to $1,344,500, a modest 1 percent gain. Median days on market for this group of home sales increased slightly from 31 to 36.

 

Not treated in detail is the $2,000,001 to $3,000,000 market price which represents only 8 percent where median values have declined only slightly, 1.9 percent since 2005, again cautioning the reader again about drawing definitive inference from a smaller sampling. Median days on market have actually decreased from 55 to 26 to 30 in 2007. The number of sales in this market segment actually increased from 27 in 2005 to a peak of 52 in 2006 and off slightly at 43 for 2007.

 

The lowest priced Mill Valley single family home sold in 2007 was $600,000 as compared to 2006 when it was $500,000 and in 2005 when it was $450,000.

 

Marin 2007 Home Sales Stats

 

THE CONFORMING LOAN LIMITS HAVE CHANGED.  HOW DOES IT AFFECCT YOU?

 

President Bush signed off last week on the $168 billion stimulus packaged approved by Congress 2 weeks ago, which, in addition to tax rebates for millions of working Americans and business owners, includes a vital, but temporary increase in the conforming loan limit.  

 

For those who can take advantage of them, the bill's mortgage market provisions are likely to give more of a long-term financial boost than the tax rebates of $600 directed to individuals and $1,200 to couples, economists said.

The economic stimulus package will allow the Federal Housing Administration, as well as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to offer mortgages above the current conforming loan limit of $417,000 to as much as $729,750 in high-cost areas using a formula that considers an area's median home price. The increase would only last until Dec. 31, 2008. A host of details remain to be worked out, including how the median home price is established.

Making Sense Of The Story For Consumers

 

•  It could be several months before the impact is felt in the mortgage markets. Wall Street is still working out whether investors will want to bundle securitized loans above $417,000 with loans below that level, or if they will invest in them separately.
• Rates for such loans might be higher because banks fear larger loans are riskier, but they'd still likely be lower than current jumbo rates.
• Even though the proposal does not apply to loans made before July 1 2007, borrowers with older mortgages could refinance into new loans that would be sold to Fannie and Freddie, because those loans would be considered new loan.....
• It is more important than ever for potential home buyers to have a good credit score. Consumers should obtain a credit report and take care of any outstanding issues that can be fixed or improved prior to applying for a loan. According to a recent Federal Reserve survey, some 53 percent of lenders tightened requirements for prime-quality borrowers, 72 percent for sub-prime borrowers, and 85 percent for non-traditional mortgage borrowers, including PayOption ARMs, loans with interest-only payment structures, and other such products.
• Whether or not they have children, consumers may want to consider a home in a neighborhood with excellent schools. Homes in good school districts typically are a bit more "recession proof" and appreciate faster than homes near weaker schools, according to MSN Money.
• Rates on 30-year mortgages dipped slightly last week, the fifth decline in the past six weeks. Fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.67 percent last week, down from 5.68 percent the week before.

 

Here are some questions and answers about the change.

 

QWhat have Congressional leaders agreed to?

AAn increase in Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's conforming loan limits from $417,000 to a maximum of $729,750.

 

QWho benefits?

AHome buyers who are in the market as well as home sellers, who should benefit from a larger pool of buyers who would be able to get bigger loans at lower interest rates. Homeowners with non-conforming, or jumbo loans, also could benefit because they could refinance into a new conforming loan.

 

Q Why is this proposal important to California?

A The average home price in the Bay Area - more than $600,000 - is almost triple the average price in the rest of the nation. As a result, many Bay Area homeowners have jumbo loans at higher interest rates.

 

QWhen will the plan take effect and how long will it last?

ACongressional leaders have given 30 days for the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac to determine how this is going to work. It is scheduled to end on Dec. 31.

 

QWhy is it only for one year?

AIt's meant to stimulate the economy as soon as possible. Permanent changes would require more study and take longer to enact.

 

QWhat are the chances it will be extended?

AIt's possible, depending on how the economy is doing Dec. 31, 2008.

 

QShould I refinance my home loan just because of this change?

AOnly if you have a non-conforming loan. Homeowners with loans from $417,000 to $729,750 would be prime candidates to refinance for a lower rate.

 

QWhy wasn't the conforming loan limit increased before now for some higher-priced areas?
AIt takes an act of Congress to change the limit. This is a low priority because only a few states such as California, New York and parts of Florida, benefit from raising the limit. The limit is already higher - $625,000 - in Hawaii, Alaska, Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Even though housing leaders in California have pushed to raise the limit for the past several years, they have not succeeded. Until the rapid run-up in prices during the boom, most parts of California did not need a higher limit. The Bay Area, however, has had significantly higher home prices than the rest of the state since the mid-1990s.

 

QHow did they come up with the number $729,750?

AIt is 150 percent of the current limit of $417,000.

 

QWill this help homeowners at risk of foreclosure?

AIt could help some homeowners who couldn't refinance under the conforming loan limit of $417,000, unless their credit is already impaired.

 

QHow many more homes sales could be generated nationally from this stimulus?

As many as 350,000 - or about $44 billion in economic activity, according to Joseph Perkins, president of the Home Builders Association of Northern California.

 

FREE...You can search for Marin listings directly on BayAreaRealEstateSales.com: Search for Homes

 

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WHY FED RATE CUTS DO NOT EQUAL LOWER MORTGAGE RATES & OTHER MORTGAGE NEWS

Federal Reserve has been on a rate cutting spree once more. Many mortgage applicants are calling their mortgage representative and expecting a lower interest rate. Others who have been waiting to refinance are puzzled as to why mortgage rates have not moved lower during the recent five Fed rate cuts. This is difficult to explain to consumers who have watched a 2.25% reduction by the Fed with very little benefit in mortgage rates.

 

Is a Fed rate cut really good news for mortgage rates? The facts may be surprising. The Fed can only control the Discount Rate and the Fed Funds Rate. This is very different from mortgage rates.  A mortgage rate can be in effect for 30-years while a rate set by the Fed can change from one day to another.

 

It is often said history repeats itself. And if history is any teacher, we can learn from what happened to mortgage rates the last time the Federal Reserve was in a rate-cutting cycle.

 

The last time the Fed was in a lengthy rate cutting cycle was back in 2001 from January 3, 2001 to December 11, 2001. In the span of 11 months, they cut the Fed Funds rate 11 times with eight of those cuts by 50bp. This resulted in a total of 475bp or 4.75% in short-term interest rate cuts taking the Fed Funds Rate from 6.00% down to 1.75%. Now most uninformed people would naturally think because the Fed cut rates by so much during this time that mortgage rates would follow suit and trend lower as well. Not so.  Mortgage rates actually moved higher during this time of significant rate cuts because inflation, the arch enemy of bonds, gradually rose.

 

Meantime, we continue to see dramatic volatility in the mortgage markets due to the global and domestic upheavals. As recently as three weeks ago we saw conforming 30 year fixed rates as low as 5.25% at no points, though currently they are hovering around 6%. As Wall Street continues the rollercoaster, and the Fed continues to work on establishing the new loan limit guidelines, there are many questions left unanswered. The one thing we can be sure of is that during times of recession, rates typically tumble.

 

Where other lending information is concerned, we are seeing the stated income loan submission type disappearing. This is due in part to the many risky loans that were closed where borrower's income was stated far beyond reality in order to qualify. When the ARM's reset, and payments jumped, these borrowers would no longer qualify and the loans went sour. As a result, Wall Street won't purchase stated income loans any longer and those that still offered have for the most part, disappeared. This is unfortunate as most self employed people may not qualify for fully documented loan submissions. However, as rates decline this may change.

 

FREE...You can search for Marin listings directly on BayAreaRealEstateSales.com: Search for Homes

 

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2007 COST VS VALUE REMODELING REPORT NOW AVAILABLE

 

Each year since 1988, REMODELING's Cost vs. Value Report has compared construction costs for common remodeling projects with the value they add at resale in 60 U.S. housing markets. This year's Report has all 15 legacy projects (formerly, 10 were surveyed each year in rotation), plus the "upscale" versions of 5 projects introduced two years ago. New this year are upscale versions of roofing and siding replacement projects.

 

The reason this report is so helpful to homeowners and home buyers, it can give you some estimates of what remodeling projects will cost and what you can expect to recoup at resale. It's important to note that the report is specific to the San Francisco Bay Area. Here are some facts from the report:

 

 

 

Other projects that are included in the report: window replacement, bathroom additions/remodel, roofing, garage addition and more. Due to copyright issues, I am unable to display the entire San Francisco Bay Area Region Report on my website. I would be more than happy to email you the report, just send me a quick email with the subject: REPORT

 

What Do the Numbers Mean?

If some cost figures appear too high or too low, one cause is the leveling effect of averaging. High demand for remodeling services in some parts of a given metro area may drive prices up, but this is often countered by lower demand - and lower prices - in another part of the same city. Also, seemingly small differences in size, scope, or quality of finishes can dramatically affect final project cost.

 

Averaging also affects the "value" side of the equation. In an actual real estate transaction, the amount recouped for a given remodeling project depends on the condition of the rest of the house, as well as the value of similar homes nearby and the rate at which property values are changing in the surrounding area. Location in an urban, suburban, or rural setting will also affect a home's value, as will the availability and pricing of new and existing homes in the immediate vicinity.

 

In some cases, the value of the remodeling project at resale is more than 100% of its original cost. This usually happens in markets where property values are rising very rapidly, but it can also occur when buyers regard certain types of remodeling projects as "standard." For example, in a neighborhood where most houses have two bathrooms, adding a bath to a home that has just one may increase the resale value of the home beyond the cost of construction. In fact, not adding the bath could cause the home to sit on the market for much longer than is normal and to eventually sell for less than similar homes in the area.

 

When resale value is a major factor in a homeowner's decision to remodel, the best course of action is to consult with a local remodeler about construction cost, and ask an experienced Realtor about home prices in the neighborhood.

 

Again, I'll send you the report for free. Just email me by clicking on the following: Liz@BayAreaRealEstateSales.com and ask for the Report.

 

FREE...You can search for Marin listings directly on BayAreaRealEstateSales.com: Search for Homes

 

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WHAT DID YOUR NEIGHBORS' HOUSE SELL FOR?

 

Are you Curious to know what the Median home price is in your neighborhood?

 

The Neighborhood Homes Sold listing is a weekly reader feature of the Sunday San Francisco Chronicle. The data posted here is typically recorded a few months after the property officially sold. This is the public data available in the published tax records. The home addresses, sales price, number of bedrooms, square footage and the year the homes were built are based on information supplied from Bay Area counties' property transaction records which, in some cases, may not be complete.
Previous editions of Neighborhood Homes Sold

Click on the following links to see what price homes sold for in your neighborhood:

 

Feb 17 Marin Home Sales

Feb 10 Marin Home Sales

Feb 03 Marin Home Sales

Jan 27 Marin Home Sales

Jan 20 Marin Home Sales

 

FREE...You can search for Marin listings directly on BayAreaRealEstateSales.com: Search for Homes

 

SEARCH THE MARIN MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE FOR A NEW MARIN HOME

 

The following links will take you to home searches for different cities in Marin.
All search results are displayed from the highest price to the lowest price. You can scroll through pages at a time.

Belvedere homes for sale: Belvedere Homes For Sale
Corte Madera homes for sale: Corte Madera Homes For Sale
Fairfax homes for Sale: Fairfax Homes For Sale
Greenbrae homes for sale: Greenbrae Homes For Sale
Kentfield homes for sale: Kentfield Homes For Sale
Larkspur homes for sale: Larkspur Homes For Sale
Mill Valley homes for sale: Mill Valley Homes For Sale
Novato homes for Sale: Novato Homes For Sale
Ross homes for sale: Ross Homes For Sale
San Anselmo homes for sale: San Anselmo Homes For Sale
San Rafael HOMES for sale: San Rafael Homes For Sale
San Rafael CONDOS for sale: San Rafael Condos For Sale
Sausalito homes for sale: Sausalito Homes For Sale
Tiburon homes for sale: Tiburon Homes For Sale

 

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FAST FACTS

 

Marin median SFR + condo price- Dec 07: $791,500 2006: $864,000 [Source: BAREIS]

Marin average SFR + condo price-: Dec 07: $1,197,607; 2006: $1,089,129 [Source: BAREIS]

Marin median SFR home price - Dec 07: $910 ,000; 2006: $956,000 [Source: BAREIS]

Marin median condo price - Dec 07: $535,000; 2006: $548,000 [Source: BAREIS]

 

Calif. median home price -Dec 07: $475,460 [Source: C.A.R.]

Calif. highest median home price Dec 07: Santa Barbara So. Coast $925,000 [Source: C.A.R.]

Calif. lowest median home price by C.A.R. region Dec 07: High Desert $244,330 [Source: C.A.R.]

Calif. First-time Buyer Affordability Index - 4^th Quarter 07: 33 percent [Source: C.A.R.]

 

Mortgage rates - week ending 2/14/08: (Source: Freddie Mac)

·          30-yr. fixed: 5.72%; Fees/points: 0.4%

·          15-yr. fixed: 5.25%; Fees/points: 0.4%

 

If you would like to have Liz help you sell your Marin home or help you find a home, or you know of someone that could benefit from her services, just send her an email: liz@BayAreaRealEstateSales.com or give her a call: 415-250-4929

 

"High-Touch through High-Tech": Did you know that Liz McCarthy is ePro Internet Certified by the National Association of Realtors and that 70 percent of home buyers today use the internet in their home search? Why are you still working with a Realtor who isn't a technology expert?

 

What this means to you:

 

Home Buyers: Liz is an expert in helping save you time by using the internet, email and other technology resources to help save your valuable time and money. She knows how busy you are!

Home Sellers: Liz will hire a professional photographer and market your home extensively on the internet: a personal property website (see www.417Greenfield.com or www.50milland.com for samples), she will post your home on over 50 websites.

 

 

FREE...You can search for Marin listings directly on BayAreaRealEstateSales.com: Search for Homes

 

Be sure to check out all the other great content & features of my website:

www.BayAreaRealEstateSales.com

 

The Bay Area Real Estate Newsletter is provided to you by:

 

Liz McCarthy

"High-Touch through "High-Tech"

Real Estate Broker, e-PRO certified

Vision Real Estate

Liz@BayAreaRealEstateSales.com

415-250-4929

 

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