Bay Area Real Estate Sales

January Marin Real Estate News

Bay Area Real Estate Sales.com Newsletter

January 2008

IN THIS ISSUE:

Bay Area Home Sales Drag Along Bottom, Median Price Back To 2005 Level

Marin Home Sales Statistics

2007 Cost Vs Value Remodeling Report Now Available

What Did Your Neighbors' House Sell For?

Search The Marin Multiple Listing Service For A New Marin Home

Don't Charge Up A Storm Before Buying Home

What Do Liz's Clients Say?

Fast Facts

BAY AREA HOME SALES DRAG ALONG BOTTOM, MEDIAN PRICE BACK TO 2005 LEVEL

From dqnews.com

La Jolla, CA.----Bay Area home sales ended 2007 at a more-than 20-year low as buyers and sellers continued to wait out housing market turmoil that escalated last August, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 5,065 new and resale houses and condos sold in the Bay Area in December. That was down 1.2 percent from 5,127 in November, and down 39.5 percent from 8,372 in December 2006, DataQuick Information Systems reported.

Last month was the slowest December is DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. Sales have decreased on a year-over-year basis for 35 consecutive months. Until last month, the slowest December was in 1990, when 5,458 homes sold. The strongest December, in 2003, saw 12,349 sales. The average for the month is 8,903.

"There's been a significant drop-off in home financing with so-called "jumbo" mortgages. Because homes are expensive in the Bay Area, this has had a much greater effect on the market there. It looks like most non-essential buying and selling activity has been put on hold until things settle down," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.

In December there were 2,459 Bay Area home purchases financed with "conforming" mortgages up to $417,000, down 15.9 percent from 2,923 a year earlier. Last month there were 1,610 purchases made with "jumbo" loans over $417,000, down 65.7 percent from 4,694 for December 2006. Since the jumbo credit crunch hit in August, those mortgages have become pricier and harder to obtain.

The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $587,500 last month, down 6.6 percent from $629,000 in November, and down 4.9 percent from $618,000 in December last year. Last month's median was 11.7 percent lower than the peak $665,000 median, last reached in July.

The median for homes financed with conforming loans was $470,000, up 6.8 percent from $440,000 a year earlier, and off 4.3 percent from September's $491,000 peak.

DataQuick, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates, monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts. Due to late data availability, the December statistics for Alameda County were extrapolated from the first three weeks of the month.

The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying was $2,756 last month, down from $2,963 the previous month, and down from $2,828 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, current payments are 5.5 percent above typical payments in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. They are 16.9 percent below the current cycle's peak in June last year.

Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity is at record levels, financing with adjustable-rate mortgages or with multiple mortgages has dropped sharply. Down payment sizes and flipping rates are stable, non-owner occupied buying activity is edging up, DataQuick reported.

All Homes	Number Sold Dec-06	Number Sold Dec-07	Percent Change	Median December 2006	Median December 2007	Percent Change
Alameda	1,589	983	-38.1%	$589,000	$540,000	-8.3%
Contra Costa	1,788	971	-45.7%	$569,500	$505,000	-11.3%
Marin	268	193	-28.0%	$804,750	$760,500	-5.5%
Napa	127	72	-43.3%	$590,000	$590,000	0.0%
Santa Clara	2,106	1,265	-39.9%	$656,000	$655,000	-0.2%
San Francisco	589	445	-24.4%	$745,000	$731,000	-1.9%
San Mateo	685	468	-31.7%	$735,000	$733,500	-0.2%
Solano	622	360	-42.1%	$439,500	$370,000	-15.8%
Sonoma	598	308	-48.5%	$525,000	$410,000	-21.9%
Bay Area	8,372	5,065	-39.5%	$618,000	$587,500	-4.9%

MARIN HOME SALES STATISTICS

Typically the holiday season is a slow time for buying and selling houses. The following chart reflects that. The markets are a bit tough to really analyze this month, as the sampling of how many houses are on the market as well as how many are in contract are very small. For example, Ross is shown as a Sellers market this month. I think that is primarily due to the fact that many Ross homes that didn't sell last year were pulled from the market during the holiday season.

An interesting fact to note: The MBAA announced that mortgage application volume skyrocketed for the second consecutive week, rising over 28% last week. Refinancing applications were up 43% and purchase volume jumped 11%. Originators reported that refinance volume accounted for 63% of total application volume, compared with 57.7 percent the previous week.

We'll see what the next few months bring. Typically sellers start to think now about listing their homes in the spring as to get ready for the "season of home buying." Families typically like to purchase homes in the spring time as they think about schools for the following year.

MARIN HOME (CONDO + SFR) SALES STATISTICS - BY CITY AS OF 1/17/07
City	Total	Active	Number in Contract***	Percent in Contract*	Type of Market* (See Key)
Belvedere	16	15	1	6%	Extreme Buyers
Corte Madera	17	14	3	18%	Strong Buyers
Fairfax	17	12	5	29%	Buyers
Greenbrae	18	16	2	11%	Strong Buyers
Kentfield	13	12	1	8%	Extreme Buyers
Larkspur	21	18	3	14%	Strong Buyers
Mill Valley	65	53	12	18%	Strong Buyers
Novato	269	236	33	12%	Strong Buyers
Ross	13	8	5	38%	Sellers
San Anselmo	28	23	5	18%	Strong Buyers
San Rafael	185	151	34	18%	Strong Buyers
Sausalito	38	36	2	5%	Extreme Buyers
Tiburon	47	39	8	17%	Strong Buyers
Others	55	41	14	25%	Buyers
Total Marin 1/17/07	802	674	128	15.96%	Strong Buyers
Total Marin 12/18/07	932	757	175	18.78%	Strong Buyers
Total Marin 11/17/07	1,146	904	242	21.12%	Buyers
Total Marin 10/15/07	1,251	1,043	208	16.63	Strong Buyers
Total Marin 9/18/07	1,232	1,043	187	15.18%	Strong Buyers
Total Marin 8/15/07	1,190	951	239	20.8%	Strong Buyers
Total Marin 7/15/07	1,252	969	283	22.60%	Buyers
Total Marin 6/16/07	1,325	1,003	322	24.30%	Buyers
Total Marin 5/16/07	1,286	948	338	26.28%	Buyers
Total Marin 4/15/07	1,108	793	315	28.43%	Buyers
Total Marin 3/15/07	966	688	278	28.78	Buyers
Total Marin 2/15/07	893	631	262	29.34%	Buyers
Total Marin 1/15/07	720	548	172	23.89%	Buyers
Total Marin 12/15/06	898	669	229	25.5%	Buyers
Total Marin 11/16/06	1,197	902	295	24.64%	Buyers
Total Marin 10/15/06	1,401	1,095	306	21.84%	Buyers
Total Marin 9/15/06	1,395	1,127	268	19.21%	Strong Buyers
Total Marin 8/18/06	1,346	1,029	317	23.55%	Buyers
Total Marin 7/13/06	1392	1077	315	22.63%	Buyers
Total Marin 6/16/06	1323	959	364	27.51%	Buyers
Total Marin 5/18/06	1,177	817	360	31%	Balanced
Total Marin 4/10/06	977	629	348	36%	Sellers
Total Marin 3/15/06	894	597	297	33%	Balanced

MARIN HOME SALES STATISTICS - BY PRICE RANGE AS OF 1/17/07
Price	Total	Active	Number in Contract***	Percent in Contract*	Type of Market* (See Key)
$100,000-$499,999	158	129	29	18%	Strong Buyers
$500,000-$749,999	196	158	35	18%	Strong Buyers
$750,000-$999,999	164	145	19	12%	Strong Buyers
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	123	109	14	11%	Strong Buyers
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	51	40	11	22%	Buyers
$2,000,000-$2,499,999	30	19	11	37%	Sellers
$2,500,000-$2,999,999	28	22	6	21%	Buyers
$3,000,000-$3,999,999	23	22	1	4%	Extreme Buyers
Over $4,000,000	32	30	2	6%	Extreme Buyers
Total Marin 1/17/07	802	674	128	16%	Strong Buyers

Key to market type:*
0% - 10% of Homes in Escrow: Extreme Buyers	36% - 45% of Homes in Escrow: Sellers
11% - 20% of Homes in Escrow: Strong Buyers	46% - 55% of Homes in Escrow: Strong Sellers
21% - 30% of Homes in Escrow: Buyers	56% - 100% of Homes in Escrow: Extreme Sellers
31% - 35% of Homes in Escrow: Balanced Market

**Based on information from Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, Inc. (BAREIS). Information has not been verified, is not guaranteed, and is subject to change and is based on one period of time."

***Includes all: Sale Pending & Contingent properties

Monthly Statistics

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or for an evaluation of your home's worth, call me. If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the top.

I'm always searching for ways to bring my clients and readers more local real estate statistics. I'm pleased to announce the launch of my new Marin home Sales Statistics page. To view, go to: Marin Real Estate Statistics.

If you know of anyone who would like to receive this monthly newsletter or is thinking of either buying or selling a home please let me know. I'd love your referrals!

FREE...You can search for Marin listings directly on BayAreaRealEstateSales.com: Search for Homes

2007 COST VS VALUE REMODELING REPORT NOW AVAILABLE

Each year since 1988, REMODELING's Cost vs. Value Report has compared construction costs for common remodeling projects with the value they add at resale in 60 U.S. housing markets. This year's Report has all 15 legacy projects (formerly, 10 were surveyed each year in rotation), plus the "upscale" versions of 5 projects introduced two years ago. New this year are upscale versions of roofing and siding replacement projects.

The reason this report is so helpful to homeowners and home buyers, it can give you some estimates of what remodeling projects will cost and what you can expect to recoup at resale. It's important to note that the report is specific to the San Francisco Bay Area. Here are some facts from the report:

Job	Cost	Value	Cost Recouped
Major Kitchen Remodel-Upscale	$123,476	$126,779	102.7%
Major Kitchen Remodel - Mid-range	$64,617	$69,518	$107.6%
Master Suite Addition - Upscale	$265,265	$227,096	85.6%
Master Suite Addition - Mid-Range	$125,837	$132,667	105.4%

Other projects that are included in the report: window replacement, bathroom additions/remodel, roofing, garage addition and more. Due to copyright issues, I am unable to display the entire San Francisco Bay Area Region Report on my website. I would be more than happy to email you the report, just send me a quick email with the subject: REPORT

What Do the Numbers Mean?

If some cost figures appear too high or too low, one cause is the leveling effect of averaging. High demand for remodeling services in some parts of a given metro area may drive prices up, but this is often countered by lower demand - and lower prices - in another part of the same city. Also, seemingly small differences in size, scope, or quality of finishes can dramatically affect final project cost.

Averaging also affects the "value" side of the equation. In an actual real estate transaction, the amount recouped for a given remodeling project depends on the condition of the rest of the house, as well as the value of similar homes nearby and the rate at which property values are changing in the surrounding area. Location in an urban, suburban, or rural setting will also affect a home's value, as will the availability and pricing of new and existing homes in the immediate vicinity.

In some cases, the value of the remodeling project at resale is more than 100% of its original cost. This usually happens in markets where property values are rising very rapidly, but it can also occur when buyers regard certain types of remodeling projects as "standard." For example, in a neighborhood where most houses have two bathrooms, adding a bath to a home that has just one may increase the resale value of the home beyond the cost of construction. In fact, not adding the bath could cause the home to sit on the market for much longer than is normal and to eventually sell for less than similar homes in the area.

When resale value is a major factor in a homeowner's decision to remodel, the best course of action is to consult with a local remodeler about construction cost, and ask an experienced Realtor about home prices in the neighborhood.

Again, I'll send you the report for free. Just email me by clicking on the following: Liz@BayAreaRealEstateSales.com and ask for the Report.

WHAT DID YOUR NEIGHBORS' HOUSE SELL FOR?

Are you Curious to know what the Median home price is in your neighborhood?

The Neighborhood Homes Sold listing is a weekly reader feature of the Sunday San Francisco Chronicle. The data posted here is typically recorded a few months after the property officially sold. This is the public data available in the published tax records. The home addresses, sales price, number of bedrooms, square footage and the year the homes were built are based on information supplied from Bay Area counties' property transaction records which, in some cases, may not be complete.
Previous editions of Neighborhood Homes Sold

Click on the following links to see what price homes sold for in your neighborhood:

Jan 13 Marin Home Sales

Jan 06 Marin Home Sales

Dec 30 Marin Home Sales

Dec 23 Marin Home Sales

FREE...You can search for Marin listings directly on BayAreaRealEstateSales.com: Search for Homes

SEARCH THE MARIN MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE FOR A NEW MARIN HOME

The following links will take you to home searches for different cities in Marin.
All search results are displayed from the highest price to the lowest price. You can scroll through pages at a time.

Belvedere homes for sale: Belvedere Homes For Sale
Corte Madera homes for sale: Corte Madera Homes For Sale
Fairfax homes for Sale: Fairfax Homes For Sale
Greenbrae homes for sale: Greenbrae Homes For Sale
Kentfield homes for sale: Kentfield Homes For Sale
Larkspur homes for sale: Larkspur Homes For Sale
Mill Valley homes for sale: Mill Valley Homes For Sale
Novato homes for Sale: Novato Homes For Sale
Ross homes for sale: Ross Homes For Sale
San Anselmo homes for sale: San Anselmo Homes For Sale
San Rafael HOMES for sale: San Rafael Homes For Sale
San Rafael CONDOS for sale: San Rafael Condos For Sale
Sausalito homes for sale: Sausalito Homes For Sale
Tiburon homes for sale: Tiburon Homes For Sale

DON'T CHARGE UP A STORM BEFORE BUYING HOME

By Ilyce R. Glink

Sometimes home buyers think they'll be able to get away with making a large purchase just after they've been approved for a mortgage.

But charging up a ton of debt on your credit card before you've closed on your new home isn't a smart move. In fact, all that debt could sink your mortgage application and kill your real estate deal.

When home buyers go to get approved for a mortgage, the lender takes a snapshot of their financial life. The lender pulls a copy of the borrower's credit history and credit score, and then looks at bank account statements and tax returns.

If the lender approves the borrower for a loan, the lender will expect his or her financial picture to remain roughly the same up until after the loan closes.

What many borrowers don't realize is that the lender may take another financial snapshot of their lives just before the closing. The second pull of your credit history and credit score could come any time within a week or two of your scheduled closing date.

The lender is just checking to make sure nothing has gone wrong or changed with your credit. What the lender doesn't want to see is a huge run-up of credit card debt or other loans in the days before the loan closes. The lender will generally also require the borrower to sign a statement at closing affirming that there has been no change in the borrower's financial ability to repay the loan and the borrower's employment status remains the same.

And yet, many times borrowers will get approved for their mortgage and then run out and buy a new car.

If you buy a Corvette two weeks before closing and you get a loan to pay for the car, or even if you lease it, that information will immediately get posted to your credit history and your mortgage lender will see it. The lender will also know how much you're going to pay each month for that loan, and that car payment will have a direct impact on whether the lender feels you'll be able to afford your new home loan.

Sometimes home buyers make a list of all the things that need to be bought for the new property, such as appliances, window treatments, furniture, carpeting or other items. Do these items need to be bought before you've closed on the property and moved in? Most of the time, the answer is "no." But, it's easier to buy these things and have the movers move them, and so your credit cards can easily take a beating in the month leading up to the closing.

How much debt are we talking about? Often, home buyers spend up to $10,000 buying new stuff for their new home. For many buyers, that's enough to throw your debt-to-income ratios out of whack.

When you start changing your debt ratios, lenders get nervous. You don't want your debt-to-income level to be seriously out of whack a few days before the closing. Suddenly, to the lender, it will look as though you've lost your financial mind.

The consequences can be fairly severe: If your debt ratios change by too much, the lender may decide that you don't fall within the prescribed limits for your particular loan. The loan could then be canceled, leaving you without financing in the days before your closing. You'll have to start shopping around to find a new mortgage lender who can close in a short period of time. If you can't close, you may default on your contract with the buyer. And since you've probably already arranged to move out of your current residence, you could wind up without a place to live.

A less drastic scenario is that the interest rate, fees or payment terms of your loan may change. Your added debt might change your credit score, and your lender may no longer be willing to loan you the money at the rate promised, but, rather, at a higher rate. This could leave you with higher initial or monthly costs in the short term. But you might also have a long-term problem, especially if you can't find replacement financing or you can't afford the new interest-rate charges.

The solution to these issues is to stop spending, at least between the time you apply for your mortgage and you close on the property. Once you've closed on your new home, you can start buying stuff.

But if you're able to wait a bit before you buy the big stuff, you should. Buying a home is costly enough. But homes have ongoing maintenance issues and need repairs from time to time. If you start spending like mad and don't put any cash aside for needed repairs, you may discover that your new home is unaffordable.

If, however, you can make do with your old furniture for a while, bank the savings and avoid increasing your credit card debt, you'll find it easier and more rewarding to be a homeowner.
FREE...You can search for Marin listings directly on BayAreaRealEstateSales.com: Search for Homes

WHAT DO LIZ'S CLIENTS SAY?

"We met Liz McCarthy at an Open House in Tiburon, and were very impressed by her professionalism. The house wasn't right, but the agent was. That day at the Tiburon house we knew Liz was the one to finally help us with hour home search. Two months later we made an offer on and closed on the perfect house for our family.

My husband and I were looking for houses in Marin for almost 6 months. We hadn't found an agent we wanted to commit to before meeting Liz. Everyone we met was either not prepared enough or tried to oversell us. Liz, on the other hand, was very objective and well informed. She promptly understood our needs, being always extremely helpful.

Thanks to Liz our buying process went totally smoothly. She was a perfect mediator in the negotiation, always looking after our interests, and at the same time, being sensitive to the seller's limits.

Liz is extremely professional, smart and organized. In addition, she is very nice and a great person to work with. We strongly recommend Liz, and would certainly work with her again."

- Mabel & Mauro Cavalletti, Mill Valley

If you would like to have Liz help you sell your Marin home or help you find a home, or you know of someone that could benefit from her services, just send her an email: liz@BayAreaRealEstateSales.com or give her a call: 415-250-4929

"High-Touch through High-Tech": Did you know that Liz McCarthy is ePro Internet Certified by the National Association of Realtors and that 70 percent of home buyers today use the internet in their home search? Why are you still working with a Realtor who isn't a technology expert?

What this means to you:

Home Buyers: Liz is an expert in helping save you time by using the internet, email and other technology resources to help save your valuable time and money. She knows how busy you are!

Home Sellers: Liz will hire a professional photographer and market your home extensively on the internet: a personal property website (see www.417Greenfield.com or www.50milland.com for samples), she will post your home on over 50 websites.

FAST FACTS

Marin median SFR + condo price- Dec 07: $791,500 2006: $864,000 [Source: BAREIS]

Marin average SFR + condo price-: Dec 07: $1,197,607; 2006: $1,089,129 [Source: BAREIS]

Marin median SFR home price - Dec 07: $910 ,000; 2006: $956,000 [Source: BAREIS]

Marin median condo price - Dec 07: $535,000; 2006: $548,000 [Source: BAREIS]

Calif. median home price -Oct 07: $497,110 [Source: C.A.R.]

Calif. highest median home price Oct 07: Santa Barbara So. Coast $1,325,000 [Source: C.A.R.]

Calif. lowest median home price by C.A.R. region Oct 07: High Desert $265,880 [Source: C.A.R.]

Calif. First-time Buyer Affordability Index - 3^rd Quarter 07: 24 percent [Source: C.A.R.]

Mortgage rates - week ending 1/17/08: (Source: Freddie Mac)

· 30-yr. fixed: 5.69%; Fees/points: 0.5%

· 15-yr. fixed: 5.21%; Fees/points: 0.5%

FREE...You can search for Marin listings directly on BayAreaRealEstateSales.com: Search for Homes

Be sure to check out all the other great content & features of my website:

www.BayAreaRealEstateSales.com

The Bay Area Real Estate Newsletter is provided to you by:

Liz McCarthy

"High-Touch through "High-Tech"

Real Estate Broker, e-PRO certified

Vision Real Estate

Liz@BayAreaRealEstateSales.com

415-250-4929

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